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    Bruce Carson

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    The Morning Brief - 12.12.18

    Posted by Bruce Carson on Dec 12, 2018 8:22:48 AM

    NATIONAL ISSUES

    Economy—Parliamentary Budget Office’s Report on the Government’s Fall Economic Statement—IMF Concerns about Pending Global Recession


    PBO’s Report on the Federal Fall Economic Statement

    For months now the Conservative Party has been unwavering in question period pursuing the Trudeau Liberals on the subject of not only running deficits for longer than they promised in their 2015 platform, but the deficits they have announced are virtually double what was promised in the election campaign. Every now and then economic data or some economists publish papers addressing the need to balance the budget, especially in good economic times. But for the most part, the party has been a voice crying in the political wilderness on this subject.

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    Topics: Morning Brief

    The Morning Brief - 12.11.18

    Posted by Bruce Carson on Dec 11, 2018 8:29:30 AM

    NATIONAL ISSUES

    Economy—Bank of Canada Governor Poloz’s Year End Speech—First Ministers Meetings; A Worthwhile Exercise?


    Governor Poloz’s Year End Speech

    When the Bank of Canada decided it no longer wanted to set out what it might do with interest rates through forward guidance, it substituted speeches by senior members of the Bank delivered the day after the rate decision with the view that these speeches would help illuminate a path forward or at least set out the Bank’s view of the short term future of the Canadian economy. Last Thursday, Governor Poloz combined his year-end speech with the one he would deliver after an interest rate announcement.

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    Topics: Morning Brief

    The Morning Brief - 12.10.18

    Posted by Bruce Carson on Dec 10, 2018 8:44:21 AM

    NATIONAL ISSUES

    Economy—November Job Numbers—Finance Ministers Meeting and Equalization Numbers


    November Job Numbers

    The job numbers released by Statistics Canada on Friday did not in any way equate with the numbers predicted by economists. It was forecast that the marketplace would create 10,000 jobs but instead the Stats Can announced the creation of 94,100 jobs in November. There was even an employment increase announced for Alberta of 23,700. The gains were felt right across the country.

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    Topics: Morning Brief

    The Morning Brief - 12.06.18

    Posted by Bruce Carson on Dec 6, 2018 1:44:35 PM

    NATIONAL ISSUES

    Economy—Bank of Canada and Interest Rates—First Ministers Meeting, Montreal, Thursday Evening and Friday

     

    Bank of Canada and Interest Rates 

    Yesterday morning the Bank of Canada kept interest rates as they were at 1.75% set at the Bank’s October meeting. In the end there was little surprise that rates were not hiked but that was not the case in October when the conventional wisdom was that the Bank would be moving quickly, depending on the data to that sweet spot of normalcy where rates are neither a headwind nor tailwind for the economy. While at the end of the statement yesterday, the Bank made it clear it was headed in that direction, it may take longer than anticipated to get there.

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    Topics: Morning Brief

    The Morning Brief - 12.05.18

    Posted by Bruce Carson on Dec 5, 2018 8:58:42 AM

    NATIONAL ISSUES

    Economy—The Bank of Canada and Interest Rates and the Effect of the Oil Price Crisis and Relevant Economic Data—Prime Minister Mulroney and Pipeline Leadership

     

    Bank of Canada, Interest Rates, Oil Price Crisis and Economic Data

    Yesterday, Kevin Carmichael wrote an article published in the National Post entitled “The Consensus on a December Hike is no Longer there.” It was almost a given after the rate hike in October which took the overnight lending rate to 1.75% that there would be another rate increase before the close of 2018.

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    Topics: Morning Brief

    The Morning Brief - 12.04.18

    Posted by Bruce Carson on Dec 4, 2018 7:21:46 AM

    NATIONAL ISSUES

    Economy—Reaction to Alberta Oil Production Cuts—President Trump and USMCA Approval by Congress

     
    Reaction to Alberta Oil Production Cuts 

    Yesterday, a number of Canada’s Bank economists commented on the effect that the oil production cut ordered by the Alberta government will have on the Canadian economy. As noted here yesterday the cuts will begin on January 1, 2019 and continue throughout the year. The plan is that through the output cuts approximately US$4 will be added to the price of a barrel of Western Canadian Select which would bring in over $1 billion to the treasury.

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    Topics: Morning Brief

    The Morning Brief - 12.03.18

    Posted by Bruce Carson on Dec 3, 2018 8:12:55 AM

    NATIONAL ISSUES

    Economy—Alberta Responds to Low Oil Prices by Temporary Reduction in Production

     

    Alberta Responds to Low Oil Prices

    Premier Notley delivered an address last evening to Albertans and the rest of Canadians and if they didn’t realize it, they now know there is a crisis in Canada’s oil patch; a crisis that will require extraordinary measures to resolve. She began by pointing out that the situation Alberta faces today resulted from decades of failed attempts to build pipelines to tidewater to transport oil to offshore markets.

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    Topics: Morning Brief

    The Morning Brief - 11.29.18

    Posted by Bruce Carson on Nov 29, 2018 7:57:38 AM

    NATIONAL ISSUES

    Economy—Comments on the USMCA and probable Signing—Premier Notley Comes to Ottawa;  dealing with the Price of Oil and getting it to Market

     

    Late yesterday Prime Minister Trudeau left for the G20 meeting in Argentina. Sometimes, as with this summit, meetings like this come at a convenient time for leaders. Such is the case for Prime Minister Trudeau who may have had extra spring in his step yesterday as he headed south. While these summits can from time to time be stressful, there is no daily question period except for intermittent media availabilities, but on these trips, this seems to be something that Trudeau handles with little difficulty.

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    Topics: Morning Brief

    The Morning Brief - 11.28.18

    Posted by Bruce Carson on Nov 29, 2018 7:53:57 AM

    NATIONAL ISSUES

    Economy—Issues Management—Storm Clouds Continue to Gather: Alberta Oil Patch Update; GM Oshawa Plant Closure, What to do?

     

    Issues Management

    It has been written in this space numerous times over the past few years that most governments can deal with one crisis quite effectively and perhaps even two simultaneously if one is major and the other not so much, but put a third major crisis on the table and government, regardless of how competent, has difficulty coping. It’s more complicated than Whack-a-Mole, but not by much.

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    Topics: Morning Brief

    The Morning Brief - 11.27.18

    Posted by Bruce Carson on Nov 27, 2018 11:02:05 AM

    NATIONAL ISSUES

    Economy—GM Plant Closure in Oshawa and the Crisis in the Alberta Oil Patch: Storm Clouds Gathering around Sunny Ways

     

    GM Closure in Oshawa and the Alberta Oil Patch

    The sunny ways of unicorns and balloons set out in the fall economic update of last Wednesday have given way quickly to the reality of cold, dreary and rainy November days as two economic issues converge to hopefully bring a strong dose of reality to the Trudeau government.

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    Topics: Morning Brief

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